Excellent write up and quite helpful to under stand the business. I think chances of any new player are bleak in the near future due to thin margin and low prevailing volume of air passengers at present. Dreamfolks may have the first mover advantage. Priority Pass may buy /takeover this company....at some point of time ....who knows.....
Hi. Superb article and to the point. 2-3 clarifications- a) heard priority pass in India plays a role of lounge operator and not as an aggregator(india specific). Also u said barriers to entry is less - why would bank operators let anyone acess data?
a) Priority Pass isnt a lounge operator, its also a lounge and airport service aggregator and the largest internationally. Here is a bangalore lounge that you can enter via a Priority Pass, they donot own this lounge and just facilitate customers. https://www.prioritypass.com/en/lounges/india/bangalore-international
b) Entry barriers are less cause anyone with small capital and inclination to enter this business can replicate it. Banks do not share the data, they control entirety of it. Even for a simple sms, Dreamfolks has to agree with banks pre hand to decide if they are allowed to communicate with end client or not. There is also not much data to be shared in the entire chain. Dreamfolks or Priority Pass isnt allowed to store more than necessary information on their servers. You may go through the latest concall, it has more details on this.
Hi Tar ... thank you for the detailed write up on Dreamfolks. I personally feel there's a lot of headroom for tech development at Dreamfolks... they should focus on building a technologically advanced product and try to offset certain forces like low barriers to entry by increasing the stickiness towards their product. But what really bothers me about the IPO is - None of the proceeds from the IPO will be utilised by the company. Seems like promoters already geared for the exit & a nice pay day... really hoped to see the proceeds utilised well by the company to establish some switching costs for the customer. Hope there comes a better proxy to play the aviation space in India soon. I'm passing this.
I've been following the industry and Sumit has been part of the Priority Pass leadership since last 5 years - they have not been able to do much since then. Rather in this period, PriorityPass has further lost market share to reach this low point now.
I have been reading about Dreamfolks since couple of weeks but this by far has been the best write-up on the company (much better vs. 10+ research reports I read earlier).
You're absolutely on point with your comments on CFO, I felt the same when I listened to their maiden conference call.
Although I'll give kudos to Liberatha for creating this out of India, I don't think this business has any moats as such. Infact, going public makes no sense to me, as this will only attract new competition. (Maybe that's why other major players are not listed)
Only thing which made sense to me was promoters selling their 33% stake in Rs 560 crores which is definitely a huge exit for someone who started Dreamfolks just 9 years ago.
Also I don't fully understand what do the other promoters do (Mukesh Yadav & Dinesh Nagpal) for Dreamfolks.
This was definitely a good exit for promoters, their investment in the business must not have been more than a few cr. Mukesh Yadav & Dinesh Nagpal are silent promoters, they do not have any strategic role in the business.
In the absence of any significant competition, Dreamfolks can do well but the risks overhang will remain. So an investor here needs to keep a very close watch on risk factors (competition, RBI MDR decision, internal financial controls etc.)
Excellent analysis. In-depth is a word rarely used nowadays, but this is what an in-depth report should be like. Gives a clear idea of what an investor should look for while making an investment in this business, and more importantly, of which investor type should stay away from this kind of a company. Thank you.
Although ROCE is 20, the margins are very thin with a lot of regulatory policy hangover. And although it is having no competitors at present, there are no entry barriers of the the competitors. Thus I would refrain from investing in this business.
Excellent write up and quite helpful to under stand the business. I think chances of any new player are bleak in the near future due to thin margin and low prevailing volume of air passengers at present. Dreamfolks may have the first mover advantage. Priority Pass may buy /takeover this company....at some point of time ....who knows.....
Thank you for reading!
Very good weekend read
The flow of the Arcticle not only gives you the company business understanding but the category understanding
Glad you found it useful
Hi. Superb article and to the point. 2-3 clarifications- a) heard priority pass in India plays a role of lounge operator and not as an aggregator(india specific). Also u said barriers to entry is less - why would bank operators let anyone acess data?
Thank you!
a) Priority Pass isnt a lounge operator, its also a lounge and airport service aggregator and the largest internationally. Here is a bangalore lounge that you can enter via a Priority Pass, they donot own this lounge and just facilitate customers. https://www.prioritypass.com/en/lounges/india/bangalore-international
b) Entry barriers are less cause anyone with small capital and inclination to enter this business can replicate it. Banks do not share the data, they control entirety of it. Even for a simple sms, Dreamfolks has to agree with banks pre hand to decide if they are allowed to communicate with end client or not. There is also not much data to be shared in the entire chain. Dreamfolks or Priority Pass isnt allowed to store more than necessary information on their servers. You may go through the latest concall, it has more details on this.
Excellent Analysis and we'll structured article
thank you!
Great ananlysis. Loved the details you put out
thank you! glad you found it useful
Hi Tar ... thank you for the detailed write up on Dreamfolks. I personally feel there's a lot of headroom for tech development at Dreamfolks... they should focus on building a technologically advanced product and try to offset certain forces like low barriers to entry by increasing the stickiness towards their product. But what really bothers me about the IPO is - None of the proceeds from the IPO will be utilised by the company. Seems like promoters already geared for the exit & a nice pay day... really hoped to see the proceeds utilised well by the company to establish some switching costs for the customer. Hope there comes a better proxy to play the aviation space in India soon. I'm passing this.
Thanks for the research, appreciate it. :)
I've been following the industry and Sumit has been part of the Priority Pass leadership since last 5 years - they have not been able to do much since then. Rather in this period, PriorityPass has further lost market share to reach this low point now.
Superb!
I have been reading about Dreamfolks since couple of weeks but this by far has been the best write-up on the company (much better vs. 10+ research reports I read earlier).
You're absolutely on point with your comments on CFO, I felt the same when I listened to their maiden conference call.
Although I'll give kudos to Liberatha for creating this out of India, I don't think this business has any moats as such. Infact, going public makes no sense to me, as this will only attract new competition. (Maybe that's why other major players are not listed)
Only thing which made sense to me was promoters selling their 33% stake in Rs 560 crores which is definitely a huge exit for someone who started Dreamfolks just 9 years ago.
Also I don't fully understand what do the other promoters do (Mukesh Yadav & Dinesh Nagpal) for Dreamfolks.
Thank you Kushal, glad you found it useful.
This was definitely a good exit for promoters, their investment in the business must not have been more than a few cr. Mukesh Yadav & Dinesh Nagpal are silent promoters, they do not have any strategic role in the business.
In the absence of any significant competition, Dreamfolks can do well but the risks overhang will remain. So an investor here needs to keep a very close watch on risk factors (competition, RBI MDR decision, internal financial controls etc.)
Excellent analysis. In-depth is a word rarely used nowadays, but this is what an in-depth report should be like. Gives a clear idea of what an investor should look for while making an investment in this business, and more importantly, of which investor type should stay away from this kind of a company. Thank you.
Thank you for the kind feedback! Glad you found the write up useful
Nice
hi U Threw open new arena in aviation biz dimension 👌👌 Thnx
Thank you for reading Pankaj
Beautifully written. Loved it!!
Thank you
Excellent Analysis of the business.
Although ROCE is 20, the margins are very thin with a lot of regulatory policy hangover. And although it is having no competitors at present, there are no entry barriers of the the competitors. Thus I would refrain from investing in this business.
Thanks a lot of such a great information.
Thank you for reading!
Excellently covered article
Thank you! Glad you found it useful
Thanks for sharing your valuable knowledge, expecting more such detailed Analysis on other good business models in near future
Thank you for reading. I publish one detailed deep dive every month and lots of insights ever week in The Wrap.
Excellent job